CBO: 23 million more Americans will be uninsured by 2026 if AHCA passes

WASHINGTON — The Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation on Wednesday estimated that in 2018, 14 million more people would be uninsured if the American Healthcare Act were to be passed by the Senate, compared to the current law. After additional changes to subsidies for insurance purchased in the nongroup market and to the Medicaid program took effect, the increase in the number of uninsured people would rise to 19 million in 2020 and then to 23 million in 2026, according to CBO/JCT estimates.

However, the report also said the AHCA would reduce federal budgets by a net $119 billion during the next decade.

The largest savings would come from reductions in outlays for Medicaid and from the replacement of the Affordable Care Act’s subsidies for nongroup health insurance with new tax credits for nongroup health insurance. Those savings would be partially offset by other changes in coverage provisions — spending for a new Patient and State Stability Fund, designed to reduce premiums, and a reduction in revenues from repealing penalties on employers who do not offer insurance and on people who do not purchase insurance. The largest increases in the deficit would come from repealing or modifying tax provisions in the ACA that are not directly related to health insurance coverage — such as repealing a surtax on net investment income, repealing annual fees imposed on health insurers, and reducing the income threshold for determining the tax deduction for medical expenses, according to the CBO/JCT.

To read the report, click here.