GBI: Pipeline drugs to grow pancreatic cancer treatment market modestly by 2021

LONDON — Business intelligence firm GBI Research this week released a new report about the potential for growth in the treatment of pancreatic cancer by the year 2021. The report, “Pancreatic Cancer Therapeutics in Major Developed Markets to 2021,” notes there are currently six drugs in the global pipeline that are aimed at treating pancreatic cancer. 

 

“The six drugs expected to gain approval within the forecast period are Threshold's TH-302, Merrimack's Onivyde (in Europe), NewLink Genetic's HyperAcute Pancreas, Cancer Advances' G17DT, Immunomedics' Clivatuzumab Tetraxetan, and Incyte's Ruxolitinib Phosphate,” analyst Adam Bradbury said, noting that though these drugs would grow the market, they won’t have as large an impact as one might expect “because of their high cost-to-benefit ratio, which will severely limit their sales by 2021."

 

The market, currently valued at $1.9 billion, will likely hit $2.9 billion by 2021, GBI noted. The research firm also noted that because pancreatic cancer has a poor prognosis, it is difficult to develop drugs with good cost/benefit ratios and investors are wary. 

 

“The poor revenue prospects associated with developing pancreatic cancer therapies will mean many potential investors see it as an unwise investment,” Bradbury said. “Despite some improvements in failure rates, further elucidations of mutations and their effects on signaling pathways and disease progression will be required before effective combination therapies can be developed and a significantly lower failure rate achieved.”

 

Bradbury also noted that the market for treatment is dominated by gemcitabine, a generic that is used largely because of its efficacy and cost-effectiveness. 

 

“Even if priced similarly to gemcitabine, the very poor efficacies of the pipeline drugs in comparison to existing therapies would not offer strong cost-to-benefit ratios,” he said. “For this reason, most of the drugs likely to be approved during the forecast period will be administered as combination therapies, which will prevent companies charging premium prices and limit their market share.”