NRF forecasts 4.1% rise in retail sales for 2014, online to grow

WASHINGTON — Retail industry sales — which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants — will increase 4.1% in 2014, up from the preliminary 3.7% growth seen in 2013, according to the National Retail Federation. The association’s 2014 economic forecast, released Thursday, calls for online sales to grow between 9% and 12%.

A number of factors contributed to NRF’s 2014 economic forecast, including:

• Economic growth is expected to be above its long-term historical average. Early estimates for growth in the economy as measured by real GDP could fall between 2.6% and 3%, a noticeable improvement from the estimated 1.9% rate for 2013, and the fastest pace in the past three years.

• The labor market is expected to continue its modest recovery averaging approximately 185,000 jobs per month, helping decrease unemployment to near 6.5% or lower by the end of 2014.  

• Inflation as measured by the CPI is predicted to inch higher to as much as 1.7% in 2014.

• The housing sector is expected to continue to improve in 2014, and stronger household and business confidence should spur more consumer spending overall.

“The economy remains susceptible to buffets as we are already witnessing in the New Year, thanks to harsh winter weather, domestic and global financial issues,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz, said. “While we are careful not to ignore the challenges, we are optimistic and hopeful that future disruptions will be limited, allowing employment and business investment to grow all the while giving retailers and their customers the confidence in the economy they need.”