Health care to continue growing as share of economy says new CMS report

WASHINGTON Growth in healthcare spending probably will decline by this year because of the recession, but health will continue growing as a share of the economy, according to a new report by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Growth in national health expenditures is expected to be 6.1% in 2008, as it increases from $2.2 trillion in 2007 to $2.4 trillion in 2008, while growth in the gross domestic product is expected to be 3.5%. For this year, healthcare spending is expected to increase by 5.5%, while the GDP is expected to decline by 0.2%. Meanwhile, the health share of the GDP is expected to increase from 16.2% in 2007 to 16.6% in 2008 and 17.6% in 2009, representing about one-third of the total increase in the health share of the GDP for 2008 through 2018.

Prescription drug spending growth is expected to slow from 4.9% in 2007 to 3.5% in 2008, as customers fill fewer prescriptions and switch to generics, but prescription drug spending growth likely will rebound to 4% in 2009.

The full report is available at http://www.cms.hhs.gov/NationalHealthExpendData/03_NationalHealthAccountsProjected.asp.