IQVIA report: Pharma market to top $1.5T by 2023

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IQVIA report: Pharma market to top $1.5T by 2023

By Sandra Levy - 01/29/2019
The global pharmaceutical market is expected to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2023, growing at a 3%-to-6% compound annual growth rate over the next five years, according to IQVIA Institute’s “Global Use of Medicine in 2019 and Outlook to 2023” report.

The key drivers of growth will continue to be the United States and emerging pharmaceutical markets with 4%-to-7% and 5%-to-8% compound annual growth, respectively, according to the report.

In the United States, overall spending growth is driven by a range of factors, including new product uptake and brand pricing, while it is offset by patent expiries and generics.

An average of 54 new active substance launches per year are expected over the next five years, and two-thirds of launches will be specialty products, lifting specialty share of spending to near 50% by 2023 in most developed markets, the report said.

At the same time, the impact of losses of exclusivity in developed markets is expected to be $121 billion between 2019 and 2023, with 80% of this impact, or $95 billion in the United States.

By 2023, biosimilar competition in the biologics market will be nearly three times larger than it is today. This will result in approximately $160 billion in lower spending over the next five years than it would have if biosimilars did not enter the market.

The report revealed that medicine spending in Japan totaled $86 billion in 2018, however spending on medicines is expected to decline by -3 to 0% through 2023, largely because of exchange rates and the continued uptake of generics.

In Europe, cost-containment measures and less growth from new products contribute to slower growth of 1% to 4%, compared with the 4.7% compound annual growth seen over the past five years.

Pharmaceutical spending in China reached $137 billion in 2018 and is expected to reach $140-to-$170 billion by 2023, but its growth is likely to slow to 3% to 6%.

New products and losses of exclusivity will continue to drive similar dynamics across developed markets, while product mix will continue to shift to specialty and orphan products.

To read the full report, click here.

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