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Trend spotters

This young company is using data to predict the next big consumer trends in beauty.
yarden horwitz
yarden horwitz

Spate is a Brooklyn, N.Y.-based company with a simple mission: finding the next big trends in beauty. The company was founded by two ex-Google analysts—Yarden Horwitz and Olivier Zimmer—who started Google’s Trendspotting division and spotted the shift toward face masks, turmeric and cold brew. Now at Spate, they are using “publicly available consumer data (anonymous and aggregated) to identify exciting shifts in consumer behavior.” 

“Understanding shifts in consumer needs is imperative to success in the beauty and wellness industries, especially with new brands launching weekly,” the company said. Recently, Inside Beauty caught up with Horwitz to talk about Spate’s goals and what’s next in the beauty and wellness aisle.

Drug Store News: What is the focus of Spate?
Yarden Horwitz: We analyze over 20 billion search queries to spot the next big trend in beauty and wellness. 

DSN: How far out are you tracking movement in the sector?
YH: We analyze the last three years of data, and provide predictions for the next 12 months of consumer behavior in the beauty industry. 

DSN: What kinds of trends can retailers expect on the horizon?
YH: There are some key themes that retailers should keep an eye on in the year ahead: SPF in convenient formats (sunscreen sticks: 21.1K avg monthly searches, +69.4% YoY); Low maintenance hair trends that support a polished look on the go (air dry cream: 3.9K avg monthly searches, +51.5% YoY); Complexion-focused makeup (462.4K avg monthly searches, +7.9% YoY); Prioritization of affordability with products like body spray. Mini perfumes also help consumers save money by letting them sample before splurging on a full size (body spray: 81.6K avg monthly, +30.5% YoY and mini perfumes: 23.0K avg monthly, +30.1% YoY); and the “skinification” of body care. Though lower volume, the theme of skincare-focused ingredients continues across the body care space and is likely to continue its upward growth (hyaluronic acid body lotion (1.7K avg monthly, +14.3% YoY). 

DSN: What do you see on the decline in the market?
YH: Purple shampoo: The proliferation of rich browns and reds over the last year has rendered purple toning shampoos useless for many consumers. Of course, hair color trends are as cyclical as anything else, so consider revisiting this and other blonde- supporting products next year. 

Flat irons: Super sleek, straight hair is out these days as consumers opt instead for volume and texture enhancement with things like velcro rollers and sea salt spray. 

Face masks: Consumers prefer derm-strength treatments and services to masks these days. Consider ways to position masks as complementary to other more clinical treatments. Face scrubs: In line with the shift towards science- forward skin care, consumers are shying away from physical exfoliation to focus on chemical exfoliation with ingredients like glycolic acid. 

Under-eye concealer: Consumers prefer a multifunctional concealer these days to a dedicated under-eye concealer. Focus on multi-tasking solutions instead. 

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