Will 2024 holiday season be ho ho or ho hum?
Will the 2024 holiday season be merry and bright for retailers?
Placer.ai is predicting a rosy holiday season based on the previous eight months of retail traffic and milestones.
Noting that the first eight months of 2024, brick-and-mortar retail saw near-consistent visit growth, with August foot traffic up 2.7% compared to 2023, 3.8% compared to 2022, and 6.3% compared to 2019 (pre-pandemic), Placer.ai said that 2024’s previous retail milestones—including Mother’s Day, Memorial Day and Labor Day—saw year-over-year retail visit increases, highlighting consumers' strong engagement this year, per Placer.ai's research.
In 2023, department stores saw a 113.4% visit surge during the week before Christmas (compared to a 2023 weekly average), while hobbies, gifts and crafts stores saw more gradual seasonal increases—and both segments appear poised to enjoy a successful Q4 2024.
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With Q4 2024 just underway, retailers already are gearing up for the all-important holiday season. A condensed shopping window—just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year—is prompting many to launch early deals and promotions. And though consumers remain cautious, shoppers are expected to spend more this year than they did in 2023.
A look at the overall state of brick-and-mortar retail this year offers a glimpse into what we can expect this holiday season.
Since January 2024, monthly retail foot traffic has generally been on an upswing, with YoY visits up most months since January 2024—and foot traffic higher than in 2022 or 2019 (pre-pandemic). This steady rise in retail visits signals strong consumer engagement in 2024, setting the stage for what may turn out to be a robust Q4.
Placer.ai noted that holiday promotions are kicking off early this year, offering customers more time to take advantage of deals and helping retailers navigate supply chain and logistics challenges. And though early sales are nothing new, 2024’s shorter holiday shopping season may suffuse them with more significance than ever.
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In 2023, Thanksgiving fell on Nov. 23, leaving consumers with 32 days in which to do their holiday shopping. But this year, the holiday will be on Nov. 28, shortening the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas by five days. To make up for lost time, retailers and consumers alike may embrace an early shopping frenzy, potentially detracting from the power of milestones like Black Friday, Super Saturday and Christmas Eve Eve.
But a look at consumer behavior during special calendar days this year suggests that traditional retail milestones still very much resonate with customers. On Mother’s Day, Memorial Day and Labor Day, key industries saw YoY visit boosts, though the magnitude of the increases varied across categories.
On Mother’s Day, for example, the beauty and wellness sector saw a 3.2% YoY increase in visits—highlighting the category’s enduring popularity for grateful offspring seeking to give mom a special gift. But on Memorial Day, department stores had their time in the sun, overshadowing other segments with a 7.2% YoY visit boost.
Overall, these occasions proved particularly effective at driving consumer engagement this year. So whether by targeting big days like Black Friday or planning extended holiday campaigns, the 2024 holiday season gives retailers a great chance to benefit from consumer excitement.
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While all retail categories participate in the holiday season's flurry of sales, promotions and limited-time offers, a select few shine especially bright during this period. These segments’ strong performance can often make up for quieter stretches earlier in the year, Placer.ai said.
Department stores are prime examples of holiday season winners. An analysis of weekly visits throughout 2023 shows that department stores experience one of the most impressive visits spikes of the holiday season. In the week leading up to Christmas, visits to department stores surged 113.4% compared to a 2023 weekly average—highlighting the segment’s success at positioning itself as a go-to destination for holiday shopping.
Another standout during the holiday season is the hobbies, gifts and crafts category. Unlike department stores, this category sees a more evenly-distributed rise in foot traffic across Q4, with peaks leading up to Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas. This pattern reflects the popularity of holiday-related decorations and gifts, which drive increased visits during these festive periods.
These two powerhouse categories—department stores and hobbies, gifts and crafts—are poised to dominate the 2024 holiday season, just as they did last year. And with consumer spending expected to rise and foot traffic showing no signs of slowing, both categories have significant potential for even greater success this year, Placer.ai said.
The upcoming holiday season looks on track to be a big one. Despite the shorter shopping window, retailers are taking steps to maximize shopping opportunities with early promotions. And against the backdrop of this year’s robust consumer engagement—especially around milestones—Q4 is shaping up to be a festive season indeed.