2015 holiday sales to reach $630.5 billion, NRF says

WASHINGTON - Expect holiday sales in November and Decemer to be up 3.7% in 2015, the National Retail Federation announced Thursday, reaching $630.5 billion. And while that holiday sales peak is coming off of much stronger growth than the prior 10-year average of 2.5% increase in holiday sales, it won't be as good as last year. 

 

Additionally, NRF is forecasting online sales to increase between 6% and 8% to as much as $105 billion.

 

“With several months of solid retail sales behind us, we’re heading into the all-important holiday season fully expecting to see healthy growth,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. “However, while economic indicators have improved in several areas, Americans remain somewhat torn between their desire and their ability to spend; the fact remains consumers still have the weight of the economy on their minds, further explaining the complex retail spending environment we are seeing right now. We expect families to spend prudently and deliberately, though still less constrained than what we saw even two years ago.”

 

But if you're looking to capture more than your fair share of that 3.7% growth, act fast, as several factors may impede spending decisions as the holiday season approaches. 

 

“Potential disruptions from yet another government shutdown in mid-December and a slower pace of job creation and income growth are just a few key factors that will impact holiday shoppers’ spending this year,” Shay said. “Price, value and even timing will all play a role in how, when, where and why people shop over the holiday season. Retailers will be competitive not only on price, but on digital initiatives, store hours, product offerings and much more.”

 

Holiday sales in 2014 increased 4.1% over the previous year.

 

"Similar to last year in the sense we’re coming off a rather disappointing first half, this holiday season brings to light several crosscurrents that still exist for American households,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “While confidence data is encouraging, slower job growth in 2015, deflationary retail prices and the mix of consumer spending somewhat shifting toward big ticket items and services, as well as the wild card in our government spending debates, will all contribute to the slower growth rate of sales expected for the holiday season.”

 

Holiday sales represent 19% of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion, NRF reported. 

 

“All said, there’s no reason to doubt that we will see solid retail sales growth in the final two months of the year,” continued Kleinhenz.

 

NRF’s holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including, consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly retail sales releases. It also includes the non-store category (direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales).